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Sean Campbell

Chief Economist, Head of Policy Research

&nbsp;A decade ago, the financial crisis raised important policy questions about how to end “too big to fail,” or “TBTF.”&nbsp; By TBTF we mean a situation in which a bank is so large, complex, or interconnected with the financial system that the government is unwilling to allow the bank to fail for fear that its failure would impose too much damage on the economy.&nbsp; Consequently, governments take extraordinary actions to avoid the default of a TBTF bank.&nbsp; As a result, creditors are protected from default losses and fund a TBTF bank more cheaply than if they were exposed to the possibility of default losses.&nbsp; In this post, we describe some of the most significant changes to large banks and the financial system that directly address TBTF.&nbsp;In the past decade, three broad sets of changes have been made to address TBTF.&nbsp; First, large banks have taken significant steps to reduce their complexity and improve their ability to fail without significant knock-on effects to the rest of the economy.&nbsp; Second, the legal and regulatory regime has undergone material changes to facilitate a less costly failure and more effective resolution of a large bank.&nbsp; Third, public transparency around the government’s unwillingness to provide extraordinary support in the event of a future failure scenario has increased markedly.&nbsp; As a consequence of these three changes, bank creditors have realized that they bear default risk, and the cost of funding large banks has increased as a result.&nbsp; Taken together, these developments point to a world in which large banks and large bank creditors would be required to deal privately with the consequences of failure.&nbsp;<h3>Steps Taken by Banks to Improve Resolvability&nbsp;</h3>First and foremost, large banks, and Forum members in particular, have made significant strides in reducing their overall complexity and making resolution more feasible.&nbsp; All Forum members engage in an ongoing resolution, or “living will,” process.&nbsp; Resolution plans detail a bank’s most significant and material operating entities as well as funding sources, liquidity sources, and roadmaps for the wind-down and sale or disposal of certain legal entities and assets in the event of failure.&nbsp; Forum members’ living wills are reviewed and assessed by the Federal Reserve and FDIC.&nbsp; As of the most recent review in December, all Forum members’ resolution plans have met regulatory requirements.&nbsp;While the living will process is crucial to dealing with TBTF, other steps have been taken by Forum members to reduce complexity and make themselves resolvable.&nbsp; To that point, two important changes have been made over the past decade.&nbsp;First, Forum members have reduced their organizational complexity.&nbsp; A simpler and less complex organization is easier to resolve than a more complex organization.&nbsp; Figure 1 displays one measure of organizational complexity that is explored in research conducted by the <a href="http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2018/05/have-the-biggest-us-banks-become-less-complex.html">Federal Reserve Bank of New York</a>: the total number of legal subsidiaries within a holding company.&nbsp; As shown in Figure 1, total Forum member subsidiaries have declined by roughly 50% since 2009, which suggests a significant decrease in organizational complexity.&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://fsforum.com/a/tbtf_figure_1_8868c022e2/tbtf_figure_1_8868c022e2.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: FFIEC National Information Center, HC &gt; $10B Organizational Hierarchy, <a href="https://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/HCSGreaterThan10B.aspx">https://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/HCSGreaterThan10B.aspx</a></figcaption></figure>Second, Forum members have reduced their balance sheet complexity by reducing their holdings of complex and illiquid assets.&nbsp; Banks with simpler balance sheets are easier to resolve, as selling complex and hard-to-value assets is time consuming, costly, and challenging. &nbsp;&nbsp;Figure 2 presents the total amount of Level III assets held by Forum members since 2009.&nbsp; Level III assets are those assets that can only be valued for accounting purposes by reference to complex quantitative models. &nbsp;Collateralized debt obligations, or so-called “CDOs,” and “CDO-squareds” would be examples of assets that would be identified as Level III assets.&nbsp; As shown in Figure 2, Forum members have reduced their Level III assets by 77% since 2009, which indicates a significant reduction in balance sheet complexity.&nbsp; The evidence presented in Figures 1 and 2 provide concrete evidence that Forum members have reduced both their organizational and balance sheet complexity, which has improved their resolvability.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://fsforum.com/a/tbtf_figure_2_dd672f2f07/tbtf_figure_2_dd672f2f07.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: FR Y-9C data, available at <a href="https://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/HCSGreaterThan10B.aspx">https://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/HCSGreaterThan10B.aspx</a></figcaption></figure><h3>Changes to the Legal and Regulatory Framework&nbsp;</h3>Aside from the organizational changes that have been made by large banks to improve their resolvability, the government and regulators have made significant changes to the legal and regulatory system to facilitate an orderly and cost-effective resolution.&nbsp; Importantly, the Dodd-Frank Act created a new backup resolution regime that is designed to facilitate the resolution of a large financial firm while limiting spillover costs to the rest of the economy. &nbsp;Under this new backup regime, the material operating subsidiaries of the holding company, such as the bank, would continue operating normally as holding company debt holders would see their debt instruments converted into equity in the material operating subsidiaries.&nbsp; This new resolution regime has been endorsed by key regulators.&nbsp; In 2013, Federal Reserve Board Chairman (then Governor) <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20130304a.htm">Jay Powell supported the new resolution regime</a>: “I came around to the view that it is possible to resolve a large, global financial institution.&nbsp; What changed my mind was the FDIC’s innovative ‘single-point-of-entry’ approach…this approach is a classic simplifier, making theoretically possible something that seemed impossibly complex.”&nbsp;One key pre-condition to a successful resolution under the new regime is that the financial institution in question have sufficient amounts of long-term debt that can be converted to equity.&nbsp; In December 2016, the Federal Reserve Board adopted specific long-term debt requirements to facilitate a successful resolution.&nbsp; As of today, all Forum members have issued significant amounts of long-term debt and are on track to comply with the new long-term debt requirements by the rule’s effective date.&nbsp; To the extent that the creation of a new resolution regime creates the legal basis for an effective and lower cost resolution, the long-term debt issued by Forum members ensures that sufficient financial resources exist to successfully execute a resolution.&nbsp; Together, the new resolution regime and the existence of significant amounts of long-term debt help ensure the viability of an effective and credible resolution regime for large banks.&nbsp;<h3>Public Transparency and Creditor Recognition&nbsp;</h3>While it is imperative that large banks and the regulatory regime make changes to facilitate an orderly and credible resolution, it is also important that these developments be made abundantly transparent so that creditors and the public fully understand that failure and resulting default losses – no matter how remote – is a distinct possibility.&nbsp; A number of developments in the past several years have raised public awareness regarding the unlikely nature of any future government support in the event of a large bank failure.&nbsp;In 2013, a number of credit rating agencies either <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/670/665162.pdf">removed or reduced any rating “uplift” to Forum member bonds</a> that previously existed because of those rating agencies’ assessments that creditors would be supported by extraordinary government actions.&nbsp; Later, in 2015, rating agencies, such as <a href="https://www.marketnews.com/content/sp-downgrades-non-op-holding-companies-eight-us-gsibs-text">Standard and Poor’s</a>, publicly announced that as a result of progress made toward establishing a credible resolution regime, the likelihood of any U.S. government extraordinary support was “uncertain,” and the rating on Forum members’ holding company debt was lowered to reflect the greater default risk to private creditors.&nbsp; Government officials have also opined on the possibility of providing future public support.&nbsp; In his confirmation hearing in November, Chairman Powell was asked whether big U.S. banks were still “too big to fail.”&nbsp; In response, Chairman Powell indicated that much progress had been made on the TBTF front.&nbsp; When pressed further on the question, Chairman Powell answered crisply and directly – <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4748816/powellkennedy-tbtf">“I would say no.”</a>&nbsp;Despite substantial changes to large banks, the legal framework, and public transparency, one can still reasonably ask whether bank creditors truly understand the risks they face.&nbsp; Indeed, a key weakness identified during the last financial crisis was a widespread lack of appreciation for risks that, in hindsight at least, seemed apparent to many.&nbsp; Two recent research papers strongly suggest that investors are aware of these risks.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.darrellduffie.com/uploads/policy/Duffie-JEP-Prone-to-Fail-July7-2018.pdf">Darrell Duffie</a> of Stanford University examines the credit spread paid by large banks to their creditors using Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread data.&nbsp; This credit spread is depicted in Figure 3 and is taken directly from Professor Duffie’s research.&nbsp; The chart shows that large bank credit spreads have increased from roughly five- to ten-hundredths of a percentage point a decade ago to roughly fifty-hundredths (or one-half) of one percentage point today.&nbsp; This five- to ten-fold increase is substantial and presents clear evidence that large bank creditors understand the risks they face and charge accordingly.&nbsp; As Professor Duffie puts it: “Whether or not bail-in [orderly resolution] works reasonably well in practice, what matters for big bank borrowing costs is that creditors believe that it would be tried.&nbsp; It appears that they do now believe this.&nbsp; As shown…the cost of wholesale unsecured credit for the largest banks has increased dramatically, despite the significant improvements in capital and liquidity achieved under the post-crisis regulations.”&nbsp; In particular, Professor Duffie rightly observes that, in light of the significant post-crisis increases in capital and liquidity, one would naturally expect large bank borrowing costs to go down.&nbsp; The fact that they have actually gone up strongly signals that bank creditors understand and require compensation for the failure risks they face.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://fsforum.com/a/tbtf_figure_3_344a0acd47/tbtf_figure_3_344a0acd47.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: Darrel Duffie “Prone to Fail: The Pre-Crisis Financial System," <a href="https://www.darrellduffie.com/uploads/policy/Duffie-JEP-Prone-to-Fail-July7-2018.pdf">https://www.darrellduffie.com/uploads/policy/Duffie-JEP-Prone-to-Fail-July7-2018.pdf</a></figcaption></figure>Another recent research paper by economists at the <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr859">Federal Reserve Bank of New York</a> examines the change in funding costs following the onset of the previously described living will requirements.&nbsp; The results of the authors’ findings for Forum members are presented in Table 1, which shows that the onset of living will requirements increased the cost of funding to Forum members by, on average, four-tenths of one percentage point, which amounts to an annual increase in funding costs of nearly $37 billion, which the authors argue is economically significant.&nbsp; Accordingly, recent research clearly suggests that investors are keenly aware of, and are charging large banks for, the risks they face.&nbsp; In this sense, large bank and government efforts to directly address TBTF have been successful.&nbsp;&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img src="https://fsforum.com/a/tbtf_table_1_e839bdaca6/tbtf_table_1_e839bdaca6.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Source: New York Federal Reserve “Resolving too Big to Fail,” <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr859.pdf">https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr859.pdf</a></figcaption></figure><h3>Conclusion</h3>In the past 10 years, a number of developments have directly addressed the TBTF problem.&nbsp; Forum members have reduced their complexity and made themselves more resolvable.&nbsp; The government and regulators have improved the legal and regulatory regime to better facilitate a less costly and more effective resolution.&nbsp; The public has become increasingly aware that private creditors – &nbsp;not the government – will be responsible for losses in a future resolution, which has increased the compensation creditors demand to bear default risk.&nbsp; All of these developments provide clear evidence that the “rules of the road” in the financial system have changed for the better in a way that is well understood by large banks, the government, and the public.

BankNotes Blog

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The Forum advocates for appropriate policy and regulation that promotes a strong, diverse financial system and supports the needs of our economy and American competitiveness.

Regulatory, other topics 

Charting Progress on Too Big To Fail

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State Street Corporation

Ron is chairman and chief executive officer of State Street Corporation. He is also a member of State Street Corporation’s Board of Directors. Ron was previously president and chief operating officer of State Street Corporation, and before that president and chief executive officer of State Street Global Advisors, the investment management arm of State Street Corporation. He joined State Street in 2015. Prior to State Street, Ron was president of Asset Management &amp; Corporate Services for Fidelity Investments, responsible for all Fidelity asset management organizations and Fidelity’s corporate functions and enterprise technology. He served at Fidelity from 2010 to 2014. Prior to joining Fidelity, Ron served as president and chief executive officer of BNY Mellon Asset Management in Boston, a position to which he was named in 2007. During this time, he also served as vice chairman of Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and was a member of its Executive Committee. Additionally, Ron oversaw all of Bank of New York Mellon’s activities in Asia. Prior to the 2007 merger of Bank of New York and Mellon, he was vice chairman of Mellon Financial Corporation and president and chief executive officer of Mellon Asset Management. He served at Mellon and Bank of New York Mellon from 1997 to 2010. Prior to Mellon, Ron was with McKinsey &amp; Company, Inc., from 1986 to 1997 and was elected a partner in 1992. He founded the Investment Management practice worldwide and was co-founder and co-leader of the firm’s North American Personal Financial Services practice. Additionally, he was a member of the Worldwide Property &amp; Casualty Insurance practice. During his tenure with McKinsey, Ron served in the firm’s Boston, New York, and Stockholm offices. Ron received his Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from Syracuse University in 1980 and his Master of Business Administration from Harvard Business School in 1986. Ron serves on the boards of Unum Corp. and Rhode Island Commerce Corporation. He also serves on the boards of Beth Israel Lahey Health, The Boston Foundation, IYRS School of Technology and Trades, Syracuse University and WBUR. Ron’s philanthropic and civic interests include corporate governance, retirement/healthcare policy and funding, education, and climate. He has led several initiatives on gender equality. Ron is a frequent speaker and writer, and an avid offshore sailboat racer.

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Ronald O'Hanley

State Street Corporation Chairman And Chief Executive Officer, Forum Chair

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Citigroup

Jane Fraser is the Chief Executive Officer of Citi, the world's most global bank, serving millions of consumers, businesses and institutions across 160 countries and jurisdictions. She is the first female CEO in the firm’s history. Jane has deep experience across Citi’s consumer and institutional businesses and, in many ways, she helped shape Citi into the company it is today. Before becoming CEO in February 2021, she was President of Citi and CEO of the Global Consumer Bank, responsible for all of Citi’s Consumer businesses, including Retail Banking and Wealth Management, Credit Cards, Mortgage and Operations and Technology in 19 markets. Before that, she was the Chief Executive Officer of Citigroup Latin America from 2015 to 2019. From 2013 to 2015, she was the Chief Executive Officer of the U.S. Consumer and Commercial Banking and CitiMortgage. From 2009 to 2013, Jane served as the Chief Executive Officer of Citi's Global Private Bank. Prior, Jane was the Global Head of Strategy and Mergers &amp; Acquisitions for Citi from 2007 to 2009. She joined Citi in 2004 in the Corporate and Investment Banking division. Before joining Citi, Jane was a Partner at McKinsey &amp; Company. She started her career at Goldman Sachs in the Mergers &amp; Acquisitions department in London and then worked for Asesores Bursátiles in Madrid, Spain. Jane serves as a Board Member for the Business Roundtable and the Council on Foreign Relations. She is Vice Chair for the Partnership for New York City and a member of Harvard Business School’s Board of Dean’s Advisors, the Stanford Global Advisory Board and the Economic Club of New York. Jane has an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and an M.A. in economics from Cambridge University. She is married with two children.

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Jane Fraser

Citigroup Chief Executive Officer, Forum Vice Chair

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Bank Of America

Brian Moynihan leads a team of more than 200,000 employees dedicated to making financial lives better for people, companies of every size, and institutional investors across the United States and around the world. Bank of America is recognized as a top employer by Working Mother magazine and Military Times. The company is also listed on Fortune magazine’s list of the Best Workplaces for Diversity and the Best Workplaces for Parents. It was also named one of the Best Places to Work for Disability Inclusion by the U.S. Business Leadership Network and the American Association of People with Disabilities. In 2018, Euromoney recognized Bank of America as the World’s Best Bank and the World’s Best Bank for Diversity and Inclusion, as part of their annual Global Awards for Excellence. Bank of America was also named the 2019 Catalyst Award winner, honored for supporting the continued development, empowerment and advancement of women in the company and around the world. Moynihan participates in several organizations that focus on economic and market trends, including the World Economic Forum International Business Council, the Financial Services Forum, the Bank Policy Institute (chair), the Business Roundtable, and the American Heart Association CEO Roundtable (co-chair). He is also a member of the Federal Advisory Council of the Federal Reserve Board. Moynihan leads the company’s Global Diversity and Inclusion Council and is a member of the museum council for the Smithsonian’s National Museum of African American History and Culture. Moynihan is also a member of the Brown University Corporation’s Board of Fellows and the Congressional Medal of Honor Foundation Board.

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Brian Moynihan

Bank Of America Chairman Of The Board And Chief Executive Officer

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BNY 

Robin Vince is President and Chief Executive Officer of BNY and a member of its Board of Directors. Previously, he was Vice Chair of BNY and CEO of Global Market Infrastructure. In that role, he oversaw BNY’s Clearance and Collateral Management, Treasury Services, Markets and Execution Services and Pershing businesses. Prior to joining BNY in October 2020, Robin was the Chief Risk Officer of Goldman Sachs and a member of the Management Committee. He joined Goldman Sachs in 1994 and held many leadership roles, including Treasurer, Head of Operations, Head of Global Money Markets, COO of the EMEA region and CEO of Goldman Sachs International Bank, among others. He served on several key subsidiary boards and governance committees. He was named managing director in 2002 and partner in 2006. Robin is a member of National Geographic Society's Hubbard Council and serves on the Board of Advisors of The Hospital for Special Surgery.

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Robin Vince 

BNY Chief Executive Officer 

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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

David Solomon is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Previously, he was President and Chief Operating Officer and prior to that, he served as Co-Head of the Investment Banking Division from 2006 to 2016. Before that, Mr. Solomon was Global Head of the Financing Group, which includes all capital markets and derivative products for the firm’s corporate clients. He joined Goldman Sachs as a Partner in 1999. Mr. Solomon is a member of the Board of Trustees of Hamilton College and serves on the board of The Robin Hood Foundation.

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David Solomon

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

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JPMorganChase 

Jamie Dimon is Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of JPMorganChase, a global financial services firm with assets of $2.5 trillion and operations worldwide. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers, small business, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Dimon became CEO on January 1, 2006 and one year later also became Chairman of the Board. He was named President and Chief Operating Officer upon the company’s merger with Bank One Corporation on July 1, 2004. Dimon joined Bank One as Chairman and CEO in 2000. Dimon began his career at American Express Company. Next, he served as Chief Financial Officer and then President at Commercial Credit, which made numerous acquisitions and divestitures, including acquiring Primerica Corporation in 1987 and The Travelers Corporation in 1993. Dimon served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Travelers from 1990 through 1998 while concurrently serving as Chief Operating Officer of its Smith Barney Inc. subsidiary before becoming co-Chairman and Co-CEO of the combined brokerage following the 1997 merger of Smith Barney and Salomon Brothers. In 1998, Dimon was named President of Citigroup Inc., the global financial services company formed by the combination of Travelers Group and Citicorp. Dimon earned his bachelors degree from Tufts University and holds an MBA from Harvard Business School. He serves on the boards of directors of a number of non-profit institutions including the Clearing House and Harvard Business School. Additionally, he is the Chairman of the Business Roundtable and serves on the executive committee of the Business Council and the Partnership for New York City, and is a member of the Financial Services Forum, Financial Services Roundtable and Council on Foreign Relations.

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Jamie Dimon

JPMorganChase Chairman And Chief Executive Officer

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Morgan Stanley

Edward (Ted) Pick is the Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley.Before becoming CEO in 2024, Mr. Pick served as Morgan Stanley's Co-President, Co-Head of Firm Strategy and Head of the Institutional Securities Group, overseeing Investment Banking, Equities, Fixed Income, Global Capital Markets and Research.&nbsp;In previous roles, Mr. Pick was Global Head of Sales and Trading, engineering a turnaround of the firm’s Fixed Income Division. As Head of Institutional Equities, he led that business to a leading global position. He also served as Head of Equity Capital Markets, helping the firm actively raise capital during the financial crisis.&nbsp;Mr. Pick joined Morgan Stanley in 1990 and was promoted to Managing Director in 2002. He is a member of the firm’s Board of Directors (2024), Operating Committee (2012), Management Committee (2008) and Morgan Stanley-MUFG Steering Committee (2013).Mr. Pick graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Middlebury College (1990) and received an MBA from Harvard Business School (1994). He is a Trustee at the Metropolitan Museum of Art (2018), and serves on the MET’s Nominating &amp; Governance Committees. Mr. Pick is Chair of the Advisory Board for the Morgan Stanley Alliance for Children’s Mental Health and a board member of the Institute of International Finance.

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Ted Pick

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer

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Wells Fargo & Company

Charles W. Scharf is chief executive officer and president, and a member of the Board of Directors of Wells Fargo &amp; Company. A financial services veteran with 24 years of experience in leadership roles in the banking and payments industries, Charlie served as chief executive officer of Bank of New York Mellon from July 2017 to October 2019 and the chairman of its board from January 2018 to October 2018. He also was chief executive officer and a director of Visa Inc. from October 2012 to December 2016. During his tenure at Bank of New York Mellon, Charlie demonstrated a strong track record in initiating and leading change, driving results, strengthening operational risk and compliance, and innovating amid a rapidly evolving digital landscape. As the CEO of Visa, Charlie transformed the firm into a technology-driven digital commerce company by partnering with the world’s leading technology companies to drive new payment experiences and introduce new technologies to improve payment system security. Previously, he was a managing director of One Equity Partners at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and chief executive officer of Retail Financial Services at JPMorgan Chase. He also was chief executive officer of the retail division of Bank One Corp., chief financial officer of Bank One Corp., chief financial officer of the Global Corporate and Investment Bank division of Citigroup, and chief financial officer of Salomon Smith Barney and its predecessor company. Charlie earned a Bachelor of Arts degree from Johns Hopkins University and an MBA from New York University. He is a director of Microsoft Corporation, serves on the board of trustees of Johns Hopkins University, is a member of The Business Council, and is chairman of the New York City Ballet. He lives in New York City.&nbsp;

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